The Qatar Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Qatar’s oil and gas industry.
The latest Qatar Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.35% of Middle Eastern (ME) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 6.85% of supply. Middle East regional oil use of 4.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to a forecast 7.40mn b/d in 2010. It should average 7.70mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 8.70mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mnb/d in 2001 and will average an estimated 24.96mn b/d in 2010. After an estimated 25.22mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 27.24mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 17.85mn b/d. This total will ease to an estimated 17.55mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 18.54mn b/d by 2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 391bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 483bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23.7% growth. Production of an estimated 467bcm in 2010 should reach 614bcm in 2015 (+31.4%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end of the period. Qatar in 2010 will consume an estimated 5.94% of the regions gas, with its market share forecast at 7.94% by 2015. It is set to contribute an estimated 28.91% to 2010 regional gas production and, by 2015, will account for 28.51% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bblin 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl,representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl,probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl,up almost 31% from the previous years level.
Qatars real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 15.8% in 2010, with average annual growth of 7.7% in2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 218,000b/d in 2010 to 291,000b/d in 2015. State-owned Qatar Petroleum (QP) negotiates exploration and production (E&P) agreements, shares in upstream projects, and has 50% of oil and 40% of gas production. It has signed agreements with many ofthe leading international oil companies (IOCs), particularly for gas development and export projects. Our estimates assume 1.64mn b/d of 2010 oil and liquids production, rising to 1.87mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production should reach 175bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 135bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 23bcm to 38bcm by the end of the forecast period,allowing for exports of 137bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari oil and gas liquids production of 25.6%,with volumes rising steadily to 2.06mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 79.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 6.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 390,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 135bcm to 194bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 145%, this provides an export capability rising from an estimated 112bcm to 137bcm. Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Qatar now shares first place with Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in BMIs composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country holds outright first place, two points ahead of the UAE, in BMIs updated upstream Business Environment ratings. We see little risk over the short term of Qatar having its position challenged, thanks largely to the countrys extraordinary gas wealth. The countrys score benefits from a sound country risk profile, healthy output growth prospects, high reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and an attractive licensing regime. Qatar is now fifth, ahead of Iraq, in BMIs updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with a few high scores but longer-term progress up the rankings unlikely. It has remained ahead of Oman, in spite of low scores for refining capacity, oil demand, retail site intensity, population, nominal GDP and private company involvement in the downstream segment. Generally, healthy country risk factors bolster the overall score.
