Global energy demand to soar 60% by 2040, says OPEC

November 06, 2014 | Commodities & Oilprice

World energy demand is expected to soar by 60 per cent by 2040 compared to 2010 levels, while oil output is projected to jump to 99.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 81.8 mbpd, according to OPEC. 

Vienna,Austria | –  Global energy demand will increase by 60 per cent by 2040 compared to 2010 levels, OPEC said on Thursday (Nov 6), with greenhouse-gas-emitting fossil fuels remaining by far humanity’s main source of power. World oil output is projected to soar from 81.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 99.6 mbpd over the same period, the Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its new annual report.

The share of oil in global energy use is however projected to fall from 31.9 per cent to 24.3 per cent, while that of all fossil fuels – oil, coal and gas – will dip from 81.6 per cent to 78.4 per cent. Hydro, biomass and other renewables will account for 15.8 per cent, up from 12.7 in 2010 and nuclear power will represent 5.7 per cent, little changed from 5.6 per cent, the 12-member OPEC said.

Renewables like solar and wind “are expected to continue to grow at a fast pace, partly as a result of government support. However, given their low initial base, their share of the global energy mix is expected to remain modest by 2040,” OPEC said. “It is fossil fuels that will continue to play the leading role in satisfying world energy needs in the future.”

Regarding the price of oil, which has fallen almost 30 per cent since June to around US$80 per barrel, OPEC said that it expects a nominal price of around US$110 per barrel for the rest of this decade. By 2025, the nominal price will have hit US$123.90, rising steadily to US$177.40 by 2040. In real or inflation-adjusted terms the price will fall to US$95.40 by 2020 and hit US$101.60 by 2040, OPEC predicts.

OPEC, which pumps a third of the world’s crude, also predicted 2.2 billion cars on the planet by 2040, up from 938 million in 2011, with the number in developing countries soaring fivefold. The predictions are based on global economic output rising 160 per cent by 2040 compared to 2013 by purchasing power parity.

“Under all scenarios, the health of the global economy remains central. Although there have been both ups and downs this year, the global economy is generally seen continuing its gradual recovery,” OPEC said.