The United States Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States’s oil and gas industry.
The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 89.1% of North American regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing 70.82% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption is estimated to have reached 21.26mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It is set to rise to around 21.57mn b/d by 2015. North American regional oil production averaged an estimated 12.14mn b/d in 2010 and is set to rise to 14.05mn b/d by 2015. Net imports for the region should be 7.52mn b/d in 2015 down from an estimated 9.12mn b/d in 2010.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 746bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 725bcm targeted for 2015, representing a decline of 2.82%. Estimated production of 718bcm in 2010 should ease to 708bcm in 2015, which implies net imports falling to just 17bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 87.12%, while it contributed 76.88% to regional production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 85.51%, with 77.68% of regional supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00 per barrel (bbl), +26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25/bbl, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21/bbl and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40/bbl and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a year-on-year rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.50/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous years level.
US real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 2.6% in 2010. We are forecasting 2.2% average annual growth in 2010-2015. Average US oil and liquids production (including bio fuels) is estimated to have been 8.83mn b/d in 2010. By 2015, we are forecasting output of 9.95mn b/d. Our assumption for 2010 US oil demand is 18.97mn b/d, rebounding only slowly from the 2008/09 downturn. We now see US oil use hitting 19.21mn b/d by 2015, requiring crude imports of 9.26mn b/d.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a 20.11% rise in US oil/bio fuels production, with output rising steadily to 10.60mn b/d in 2020. Given that oil consumption is forecast to ease by 1.24%, imports fall from an estimated 10.15mn b/d in 2010 to 8.14mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should ease from the estimated 2010 level of 552bcm to a low of 540bcm in 2013, then rally to 570bcm by 2020. Demand is forecast to fall from an estimated 650bcm to a low of 620bcm in 2015, before rallying to 650bcm by 2020, requiring 80bcm of net imports in the form of pipeline volumes and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMIs country risk team, the US long-term political risk score is 87.6, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.0. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 65.5, in line with the Developed Markets average of 66.6 and above the global average of 52.8.
The US is a deregulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britains BP the biggest foreign investor, followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
