The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 89.2% of North American regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing 70.9% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption is believed to have reached 21.38mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It is set to rise to around 21.76mn b/d by 2015. North American regional oil production averaged an estimated 12.39mn b/d in 2010 and is set to rise to 13.75mn b/d by 2015. Net imports for the region should be 8.01mn b/d in 2015 – down from an estimated 8.99mn b/d in 2010.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 746bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 725bcm targeted for 2015, representing a decline of 2.82%. Estimated production of 718bcm in 2010 should ease to 708bcm in 2015, which implies net imports falling to just 17bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 87.12%, while it contributed 76.88% to regional production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 85.51%, with 77.68% of regional supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
