The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.4% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 6.8% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015.
Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion.
In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic meters (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm.
Australia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 6.2%, while its share of production is put at 12.3%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 5.6%, with the country accounting for nearly 18% of supply. Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010.
Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.
Between 2010 and 2020, a decrease in Australian oil production of 28% is forecasted, with crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 620,000b/d, before falling steadily to 366,840b/d by the end of the period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 8.3%, with growth of less than 1% per annum throughout the period and the country using 1.04mn b/d by 2020.
While oil output is expected to decline, gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 50bcm in 2010 to a possible 122bcm by 2020. Demand is also expected to rise rapidly as gas plays an increasingly important role in the overall energy picture, with 10-year demand growth expected to be 33.3%.
Production growth will far outpace demand growth, however, and we see export potential rising from an estimated 18.1bcm in 2010 to nearly 80bcm by 2020, all in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s long-term oil and gas outlook can be found at the end of this report, including regional and country-specific forecasts to 2020.
